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Jumat, 26 November 2010

United States presidential election

Elections for President and Vice President of the United States are indirect elections in which voters cast ballots for a slate of electors of the U.S. Electoral College, who in turn directly elect the President and Vice President. They occur quadrennially (the count beginning with the year 1792) on Election Day, the Tuesday between November 2nd and 8th. The most recent election occurred on November 4, 2008, with the next one scheduled for November 6, 2012.

The process is regulated by a combination of both federal and state laws. Each state is allocated a number of Electoral College electors equal to the number of its Senators and Representatives in the U.S. Congress. Additionally, Washington, D.C. is given a number of electors equal to the number held by the smallest state U.S. territories are not represented in the Electoral College.

Under the U.S. Constitution, each state legislature is allowed to designate a method of choosing electors.Thus, the popular vote on Election Day is conducted by the various states and not directly by the federal government. Once chosen, the electors can vote for anyone, but – with rare exceptions like an unpledged elector or faithless elector – they vote for their designated candidates and their votes are certified byCongress in early January. The Congress is the final judge of the electors; the last serious dispute was inUnited States presidential election, 2000.

The nomination process, including the primary elections and the nominating conventions, were never specified in the Constitution, and were instead developed by the states and the political parties.


Article Two
of the United States Constitution originally established the method of presidential elections, including the electoral college. This was a result of a compromise between those constitutional framers who wanted the Congress to choose the president, and those who preferred a national popular vote.



History

Each state is allocated a number of electors that is equal to the size of its delegation in both houses of Congress combined. With the ratification of the 23rd Amendment to the Constitution in 1961, the District of Columbia is also granted a number of electors, equal to the number of those held by the least populous state. However, U.S. territories are not represented in the Electoral College.

Under the original system established by Article Two, electors could cast two votes to two different candidates for president. The candidate with the highest number of votes became the president, and the second-place candidate became the vice president. This presented a problem during the presidential election of 1800 when Aaron Burr received the same number of electoral votes as Thomas Jefferson and challenged Jefferson's election to the office. In the end, Jefferson was chosen as the president due to Alexander Hamilton's influence in the House of Representatives. This added to the deep rivalry between Burr and Hamilton which resulted in their famous 1804 duel.

In response to the 1800 election, the 12th Amendment was passed, requiring electors to cast two distinct votes: one for President and another for Vice President. The Amendment also established rules when no candidate wins a majority vote in the Electoral College. If no candidate receives a majority, the selection of President is decided by a ballot of the House of Representatives. For the purposes of electing the President, each state only has one vote. A ballot of the Senate is held to choose the Vice President. In this ballot, each senator has one vote. If the President is not chosen by Inauguration Day, the Vice President-elect acts as President. If neither are chosen by then, Congress by law determines who shall act as President, pursuant to the 20th Amendment.

In the presidential election of 1824, Andrew Jackson received a plurality, but not a majority, of electoral votes cast. The election was thrown to the House of Representatives, and John Quincy Adams was elected to the presidency. A deep rivalry was fermented between Andrew Jackson and House Speaker Henry Clay, who had also been a candidate in the election.

Constitutionally, the manner for choosing electors is determined within each state by its legislature. During the first presidential election in 1789, only 6 of the 13 original states chose electors by any form of popular vote.[4] Gradually throughout the years, the states began conducting popular elections to help choose their slate of electors, resulting in the overall, nationwide indirect election system that it is today.

Although the nationwide popular vote does not directly determine the winner of a presidential election, it does strongly correlate with who is the victor. In 52 of the 56 total elections held so far (about 93 percent), the winner of the Electoral College vote has also carried the national popular vote.

However, candidates can fail to get the most votes in the nationwide popular vote in a Presidential election and still win that election. In the 1824 election mentioned above, Jackson won both the popular vote and the electoral vote, but it was eventually decided by the House. Then in1876, 1888 and 2000, the winner of electoral vote actually lost the popular vote outright. Numerous constitutional amendments have been submitted seeking to replace the Electoral College with a direct popular vote, but none has ever successfully passed both Houses of Congress. Another alternate proposal is the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, an interstate compact whereby individual participating states agree to allocate their electors based on the winner of the national popular vote instead of just their respective statewide results.

Nominating process

The modern nominating process of U.S. presidential elections currently consists of two major parts: a series of presidential primary elections and caucuses held in each state, and the presidential nominating conventions held by each political party. This process was never included in the United States Constitution, and thus evolved over time by the political parties to clear the field of candidates.

The primary elections and caucuses are run by state and local governments. Some states only hold primary elections, some only hold caucuses, and others use a combination of both. These primaries and caucuses are staggered between January and June before the federal election, with Iowa and New Hampshire traditionally holding the first presidential state caucus and primary, respectively.

Like the general election, presidential caucuses or primaries are indirect elections. The major political parties officially vote for their presidential candidate at their respective nominating conventions, usually all held in the summer before the federal election. Depending on each state's law and state's political party rules, when voters cast ballots for a candidate in a presidential caucus or primary, they may actually be voting to award delegates "bound" to vote for a candidate at the presidential nominating conventions, or they may simply be expressing an opinion that the state party is not bound to follow in selecting delegates to their respective national convention.

Unlike the general election, voters in the U.S. territories can also elect delegates to the national conventions.

In addition to delegates chosen during primaries and caucuses, state delegations to both the Democratic and Republican conventions also include "unpledged" delegates who can vote for whomever they want. For Republicans, these include top party officials. Democrats have a more expansive group of unpledged delegates called "superdelegates", who are party leaders and elected officials.

Each party's presidential candidate also chooses a vice presidential nominee to run with him on the same ticket, and this choice is basically rubber-stamped by the convention.

The popular vote on Election Day

Under the constitution, the manner for choosing electors for the Electoral College is determined by each state's legislature. Today, the states and the District of Columbia each conduct their own popular elections on Election Day to help determine their respective slate of electors. Thus, the presidential election is really an amalgamation of separate and simultaneous state elections instead of a single national election run by the federal government.

Like any other election in the United States, the eligibility of an individual for voting is set out in the Constitution and also regulated at state level. The Constitution states that suffrage cannot be denied on grounds of race or color, sex or age for citizens eighteen years or older. Beyond these basic qualifications, it is the responsibility of state legislatures to regulate voter eligibility.

Generally, voters are required to vote on a ballot where they select the candidate of their choice. The presidential ballot is actually voting "for the electors of a candidate" meaning that the voter is not actually voting for the candidate, but endorsing a slate of electors pledged to vote for a specific Presidential and Vice Presidential candidate.

Many voting ballots allow a voter to “blanket vote” for all candidates in a particular political party or to select individual candidates on a line by line voting system. Which candidates appear on the voting ticket is determined through a legal process known as ballot access. Usually, the size of the candidate's political party and the results of the major nomination conventions determine who is pre-listed on the presidential ballot. Thus, the presidential election ticket will not list every single candidate running for President, but only those who have secured a major party nomination or whose size of their political party warrants having been formally listed. Laws are in effect to have other candidates pre-listed on a ticket, provided that a sufficient number of voters have endorsed the candidate, usually through a signature list.

The final way to be elected for president is to have one's name written in at the time of election as a write-in candidate. This is used for candidates who did not fulfill the legal requirements to be pre-listed on the voting ticket. It is also used by voters to express a distaste for the listed candidates, by writing in an alternative candidate for president such as Mickey Mouse or comedian Stephen Colbert (whose application was voted down by the South Carolina Democratic Party). In any event, a write-in candidate has never won an election for President of the United States.

Because U.S. territories are not represented in the Electoral College, U.S. citizens in those areas do not vote in the general election for President. Guam has held straw polls for president since the 1980 election in order to draw attention to this fact.

Electoral college

Most state laws establish a winner-take-all system, wherein the ticket that wins a plurality of votes wins all of that state's allocated electoral votes, and thus has their slate of electors chosen to vote in the Electoral College. Maine and Nebraska do not use this method, opting instead to give two electoral votes to the statewide winner and one electoral vote to the winner of each Congressional district.

Each state's winning slate of electors then meets at their respective state's capital on the first Monday after the second Wednesday in December to cast their electoral votes on separate ballots for President and Vice President. Although Electoral College members can technically vote for anyone under the U.S. Constitution, 24 states have laws to punish faithless electors, those who do not cast their electoral votes for the person whom they have pledged to elect.

In early January, the total Electoral College vote count is opened by the sitting Vice President, acting in his capacity as President of the Senate, and read aloud to a joint session of the incoming Congress, which was elected at the same time as the President. In the event that no candidate receives a majority of the electoral vote (currently at least 270), the President is determined by the rules outlined by the 12th Amendment.

Unless there are faithless electors, disputes, or other controversies, the events in December and January mentioned above are largely a formality in the public eye since the winner can be determined based on the state-by-state popular vote results.

Trends

A number of trends in the political experience of presidents have been observed over the years. In recent decades, the presidential nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties have been either incumbent presidents, sitting or former vice presidents, sitting or former U.S. Senators, or sitting or former state Governors. The last major nominee from either party who had not previously served in such an office was GeneralDwight D. Eisenhower, who won the Republican nomination and ultimately the presidency in the 1952 election. Chester A. Arthur had held no federal or statewide office, prior to becoming Vice President and then President.

The U.S. Secretary of State used to be a stepping-stone to the White House, with five of the six Presidents who served between 1801 and 1841 previously holding that office. However, since 1841, only one Secretary of State has gone on to be President (James Buchanan).

Fourteen Presidents have previously served as Vice President. However only John Adams (1796), Thomas Jefferson (1800), Martin Van Buren(1836), Richard Nixon (1968) and George H. W. Bush (1988) began their first term after actually winning an election. Among the remaining nine who began their first term as President as per the presidential line of succession after their respective predecessor died or resigned from office,Theodore Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman, and Lyndon B. Johnson were reelected. John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson,Chester A. Arthur, and Gerald Ford served as President but never won any presidential election.

In the most recent 2008 election, the nominees of both major parties, Barack Obama and John McCain, were sitting U.S. Senators. Before 2008, fifteen presidents previously served in the Senate, including four of the five Presidents who served between 1945 and 1974. However, only two out of those fifteen were sitting U.S. Senators at the time they were elected president (Warren G. Harding in 1920 and John F. Kennedy in1960). Major-party candidate Senators Andrew Jackson (1824), Lewis Cass (1848), Stephen Douglas (1860), Barry Goldwater (1964), George McGovern (1972), and John Kerry (2004) all lost their elections. Only one sitting member of the House of Representatives has been elected president (James A. Garfield), although eighteen presidents have been former members of the House.

Despite the 2008 election, contemporary electoral success has clearly favored state governors. Of the last six presidents, four (Jimmy Carter,Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton and George W. Bush) have been governors of a state. Geographically, these presidents were from either very large states (California, Texas) or from a state south of the Mason-Dixon Line and east of Texas (Georgia, Arkansas). In all, sixteen presidents have been former governors, including seven who were in office as governor at the time of their election to the presidency.

After leaving office, one President, William Howard Taft, served as Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. Only two Presidents, John Quincy Adams (serving in the House) and Andrew Johnson (serving in the Senate), have served in Congress after being President. John Quincy Adams however is the only former President to be elected to federal office; when Andrew Johnson served as a Senator state legislatures appointed the Senators.

Electoral college results

The following is a table of electoral college results:

Political party of each candidate is indicated in parentheses
* Winner received less than an absolute majority of the popular vote.
† Losing candidate received a plurality of the popular vote.
‡ Losing candidate received an absolute majority of the popular vote.
** As the second place winner, was elected Vice President as per the rules in place prior to the Twelfth Amendment.
OrderElection yearWinnerOther major candidates[7]
1st1789George Washington (no party) – 69 electoral votesJohn Adams** (no party) – 34 electoral votes
John Jay (no party) – 9
Robert H. Harrison (no party) – 6
John Rutledge (no party) – 6
2nd1792George Washington (no party) – 132John Adams** (Federalist) – 77
George Clinton (Democratic-Republican) – 50
3rd1796John Adams (Federalist) – 71Thomas Jefferson** (Democratic-Republican) – 68
Thomas Pinckney (Federalist) – 59
Aaron Burr (Democratic-Republican) – 30
Samuel Adams (Democratic-Republican) – 15
Oliver Ellsworth (Federalist) – 11
George Clinton (Democratic-Republican) – 7
4th1800Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican) – 73[8]Aaron Burr** (Democratic-Republican) – 73[8]
John Adams (Federalist) – 65
Charles Cotesworth Pinckney (Federalist) – 64
5th1804Thomas Jefferson (Democratic-Republican) – 162Charles Cotesworth Pinckney (Federalist) – 14
6th1808James Madison (Democratic-Republican) – 122Charles Cotesworth Pinckney (Federalist) – 47
George Clinton (Democratic-Republican) – 6
James Monroe (Democratic-Republican) – 0
7th1812James Madison (Democratic-Republican) – 128DeWitt Clinton (Federalist) – 89
8th1816James Monroe (Democratic-Republican) – 183Rufus King (Federalist) – 34
9th1820James Monroe (Democratic-Republican) – 215/218[9](not opposed)
10th1824*†John Quincy Adams* (Democratic-Republican) – 84[10]Andrew Jackson† (Democratic-Republican) – 99[10]
William H. Crawford (Democratic-Republican) – 41
Henry Clay (Democratic-Republican) – 37
11th1828Andrew Jackson (Democratic) – 178John Quincy Adams (National Republican) – 83
12th1832Andrew Jackson (Democratic) – 219Henry Clay (National Republican) – 49
John Floyd (Nullifier) – 11
William Wirt (Anti-Masonic) – 7
13th1836Martin Van Buren (Democratic) – 170William Henry Harrison (Whig) – 73
Hugh Lawson White (Whig) – 26
Daniel Webster (Whig) – 14
Willie Person Mangum (Whig) – 11
14th1840William Henry Harrison (Whig) – 234Martin Van Buren (Democratic) – 60
15th1844*James K. Polk* (Democratic) – 170Henry Clay (Whig) – 105
James G. Birney (Liberty) – 0
16th1848Zachary Taylor (Whig) – 163Lewis Cass (Democratic) – 127
Martin Van Buren (Free Soil) – 0
17th1852Franklin Pierce (Democratic) – 254Winfield Scott (Whig) – 42
John P. Hale (Free Soil) – 0
18th1856*James Buchanan* (Democratic) – 174John C. Frémont (Republican) – 114
Millard Fillmore (American Party/Whig) – 8
19th1860*Abraham Lincoln* (Republican) – 180John C. Breckinridge (Southern Democratic) – 72
John Bell (Constitutional Union) – 39
Stephen A. Douglas (Northern Democratic) – 12
20th1864[11]Abraham Lincoln (National Union) – 212George B. McClellan (Democratic) – 11
21st1868Ulysses S. Grant (Republican) – 214Horatio Seymour (Democratic) – 80
22nd1872Ulysses S. Grant (Republican) – 286Horace Greeley (Democratic/Liberal Republican) – 0[12]
Thomas A. Hendricks (Democratic) – 42
B. Gratz Brown (Democratic/Liberal Republican) – 18
Charles J. Jenkins (Democratic) – 2
23rd1876*‡Rutherford B. Hayes* (Republican) – 185Samuel J. Tilden‡ (Democratic) – 184
24th1880*James A. Garfield* (Republican) – 214Winfield Scott Hancock (Democratic) – 155
James Weaver (Greenback) – 0
25th1884*Grover Cleveland* (Democratic) – 219James G. Blaine (Republican) – 182
John St. John (Prohibition) – 0
Benjamin Franklin Butler (Greenback) – 0
26th1888*†Benjamin Harrison* (Republican) – 233Grover Cleveland† (Democratic) – 168
Clinton B. Fisk (Prohibition) – 0
Alson Streeter (Union Labor) – 0
27th1892*Grover Cleveland* (Democratic) – 277Benjamin Harrison (Republican) – 145
James Weaver (Populist) – 22
John Bidwell (Prohibition) – 0
28th1896William McKinley (Republican) – 271William Jennings Bryan (Democratic/Populist) – 176
29th1900William McKinley (Republican) – 292William Jennings Bryan (Democratic) – 155
John Woolley (Prohibition) – 0
30th1904Theodore Roosevelt (Republican) – 336Alton B. Parker (Democratic) – 140
Eugene V. Debs (Socialist) – 0
Silas C. Swallow (Prohibition) – 0
31st1908William Howard Taft (Republican) – 321William Jennings Bryan (Democratic) – 162
Eugene V. Debs (Socialist) – 0
Eugene W. Chafin (Prohibition) – 0
32nd1912*Woodrow Wilson* (Democratic) – 435Theodore Roosevelt (Progressive) – 88
William Howard Taft (Republican) – 8
Eugene V. Debs (Socialist) – 0
Eugene W. Chafin (Prohibition) – 0
33rd1916*Woodrow Wilson* (Democratic) – 277Charles Evans Hughes (Republican) – 254
Allan L. Benson (Socialist) – 0
James Hanly (Prohibition) – 0
34th1920Warren G. Harding (Republican) – 404James M. Cox (Democratic) – 127
Eugene V. Debs (Socialist) – 0
35th1924Calvin Coolidge (Republican) – 382John W. Davis (Democratic) – 136
Robert M. La Follette, Sr. (Progressive) – 13
36th1928Herbert Hoover (Republican) – 444Al Smith (Democratic) – 87
37th1932Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic) – 472Herbert Hoover (Republican) – 59
Norman Thomas (Socialist) – 0
38th1936Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic) – 523Alf Landon (Republican) – 8
William Lemke (Union) – 0
39th1940Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic) – 449Wendell Willkie (Republican) – 82
40th1944Franklin D. Roosevelt (Democratic) – 432Thomas E. Dewey (Republican) – 99
41st1948*Harry S. Truman* (Democratic) – 303Thomas E. Dewey (Republican) – 189
Strom Thurmond (States' Rights Democratic) – 39
Henry A. Wallace (Progressive/Labor) – 0
42nd1952Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican) – 442Adlai Stevenson (Democratic) – 89
43rd1956Dwight D. Eisenhower (Republican) – 457Adlai Stevenson (Democratic) – 73
44th1960*John F. Kennedy* (Democratic) – 303Richard Nixon (Republican) – 219
Harry F. Byrd (Democratic) – 15[13]
45th1964Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic) – 486Barry Goldwater (Republican) – 52
46th1968*Richard Nixon* (Republican) – 301Hubert Humphrey (Democratic) – 191
George Wallace (American Independent) – 46
47th1972Richard Nixon (Republican) – 520George McGovern (Democratic) – 17
John G. Schmitz (American) – 0
48th1976Jimmy Carter (Democratic) – 297Gerald Ford (Republican) – 240
49th1980Ronald Reagan (Republican) – 489Jimmy Carter (Democratic) – 49
John B. Anderson (no party) – 0
Ed Clark (Libertarian) – 0
50th1984Ronald Reagan (Republican) – 525Walter Mondale (Democratic) – 13
51st1988George H. W. Bush (Republican) – 426Michael Dukakis (Democratic) – 111
52nd1992*Bill Clinton* (Democratic) – 370George H. W. Bush (Republican) – 168
Ross Perot (no party) – 0
53rd1996*Bill Clinton* (Democratic) – 379Bob Dole (Republican) – 159
Ross Perot (Reform) – 0
54th2000*†George W. Bush* (Republican) – 271Al Gore† (Democratic) – 266
Ralph Nader (Green) – 0
55th2004George W. Bush (Republican) – 286John Kerry (Democratic) – 251
56th2008Barack Obama (Democratic) – 365John McCain (Republican) – 173

Voter turnout

Voter turnout in the 2004 and 2008 elections showed a noticeable increase over the turnout in 1996 and 2000. Prior to 2004, voter turnout in presidential elections had been decreasing while voter registration, measured in terms of voting age population (VAP) by the U.S. Census, has been increasing. The VAP figure, however, includes persons ineligible to vote — mainly non-citizens and ineligible felons — and excludes overseas eligible voters. Opinion is mixed on whether this decline was due to voter apathy or an increase in ineligible voters on the rolls.The difference between these two measures are illustrated by analysis of turnout in the 2004 and 2008 elections. Voter turnout from the 2004 and 2008 election was "not statistically different," based on the voting age population used by a November 2008 U.S. Census survey of 50,000 households. If expressed in terms of vote eligible population (VEP), the 2008 national turnout rate was 61.7% from 131.3 million ballots cast for president, an increase over of 1.6 percentage points over the 60.1% turnout rate of 2004, and the highest since 1968.


1 komentar:

toto mengatakan...

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Every vote, everywhere, would be politically relevant and equal in presidential elections. Elections wouldn't be about winning states. No more distorting and divisive red and blue state maps. Every vote, everywhere would be equal and counted for and directly assist the candidate for whom it was cast. Candidates would need to care about voters across the nation, not just undecided voters in a handful of swing states.

Now 2/3rds of the states and voters are ignored -- 19 of the 22 smallest and medium-small states, and big states like California, Georgia, New York, and Texas. The current winner-take-all laws (i.e., awarding all of a state’s electoral votes to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in each state) used by 48 of the 50 states, and not mentioned, much less endorsed, in the Constitution, ensure that the candidates do not reach out to all of the states and their voters. Candidates have no reason to poll, visit, advertise, organize, campaign, or care about the voter concerns in the dozens of states where they are safely ahead or hopelessly behind. Voter turnout in the "battleground" states has been 67%, while turnout in the "spectator" states was 61%. Policies important to the citizens of ‘flyover’ states are not as highly prioritized as policies important to ‘battleground’ states when it comes to governing.

The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes--that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

The bill uses the power given to each state by the Founding Fathers in the Constitution to change how they award their electoral votes for president.

The bill has been endorsed or voted for by 1,922 state legislators (in 50 states) who have sponsored and/or cast recorded votes in favor of the bill.

In Gallup polls since 1944, only about 20% of the public has supported the current system of awarding all of a state's electoral votes to the presidential candidate who receives the most votes in each separate state (with about 70% opposed and about 10% undecided). The recent Washington Post, Kaiser Family Foundation, and Harvard University poll shows 72% support for direct nationwide election of the President. Support for a national popular vote is strong in virtually every state, partisan, and demographic group surveyed in recent polls.

The National Popular Vote bill has passed 31 state legislative chambers, in 21 small, medium-small, medium, and large states, including one house in Arkansas (6), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), The District of Columbia (3), Maine (4), Michigan (17), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5), New York (31), North Carolina (15), and Oregon (7), and both houses in California (55), Colorado (9), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), New Jersey (15), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), and Washington (11). The bill has been enacted by the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Washington. These seven states possess 76 electoral votes -- 28% of the 270 necessary to bring the law into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

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